【云德资讯】武汉冠状新型肺炎病毒疫情引发的思考

一、数据统计分析:人类历史上最惨烈的事件是什么？

1. Statistical Analysis of Data: Whatis the Worst Event in Human History?

对于人类社会来讲，最惨烈的事情是什么？有人会说是地震等自然灾害，有的人说是战争等人祸，因为这些天灾人祸直接威胁到所在区域中所有人的生命。

What is the worst thing forhuman society? Some people will say it is natural disasters such asearthquakes, while others will say it is man-made disasters such as wars,because these natural and man-made disasters directly threaten the lives of allpeople in the region.

对于很多国人来讲，1976年唐山大地震仅仅是教科书中或者先辈口中的历史，但2008年汶川地震的惨剧还历历在目。据统计:唐山大地震一夜之间242769名同胞罹难，435556人受伤；汶川大地震死亡人69227人死亡，374643人受伤，17923人失踪，惨烈之极。但地震毕竟属于区域性灾害，对于整个人类社会的危害尚不属于最惨的。对我们唐山和汶川那些死难的同胞默哀之后，稍稍平复下心情再看一组更恐怖的数据,关于人祸方面的:不提其他战争，就说两次世界大战:第一次世界大战全球大约有6500万人参战，1000多万人丧生，2000万人受伤；第二次世界大战中全球军民共伤亡9000余万人。

For many Chinese, the 1976Tangshan earthquake is only the history in textbooks or in the mouth ofancestors, but the tragedy of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is still vivid inour mind. According to statistics, 242,769 compatriots were killed and 435,556injured overnight in the Tangshan earthquake. The Wenchuan earthquake killed69,227 people, injured 374,643 and missed 17,923, it was so tragic. However,after all, the earthquake is a regional disaster and its harm to the wholehuman society is not the worst. After observing a moment of silence for ourcompatriots who died in Tangshan and Wenchuan, let’s calmed down a little andlooked at a group of more horrible data. Regarding man-made disasters: not tomention other wars, we said that there were two world wars: in the World War I,about 65 million people took part in the war, more than 10 million people werekilled and 20 million injured. In the World War II, more than 90 millionsoldiers and civilians were killed or injured worldwide.

还有很多，笔者只是列举了时间上距离我们最近、最能唤起我们历史记忆的事件，这几起事件影响最大的应该是二战:涉及的区域最广、影响的人口数量更多，死伤者最多，9000余万人！即便如此，死伤人口也不到当时参战区域人口的5%。笔者之所以用“即便如此”之类貌似残忍的笔调来陈述，是因为有着更为惨烈的历史事件被我们大多数人锁在历史记忆的抽屉里不愿翻开、或者已经遗忘了：中世纪的欧洲“黑死病”鼠疫！相信很多人已经陌生了，但历史数据就在那里：从1347至1353年，席卷整个欧洲的被称之为“黑死病”的鼠疫大瘟疫，夺走了2500万欧洲人的性命，占当时欧洲总人口的1/3！5%与1/3，哪个更惨烈？

More， The author has onlylisted the events that are closest to us in time and can arouse our historicalmemory most. The greatest impact of these events should be World War II: thewidest area involved, the larger population affected, the largest number ofcasualties, and more than 90 million people! Even so, the number of casualtieswas less than 5% of the population in the war area at that time. The reason whythe author uses seemingly cruel tone such as "even so" to state it isbecause most of us are locked in the drawer of historical memory and do notwant to open it, or have forgotten it: the "Black Death" plague inEurope in the middle world! I believe many people are unfamiliar with it, butthe historical data are real: from 1347 to 1353, the plague called "BlackDeath" swept across Europe, killing 25 million Europeans, accounting for1/3 of the total population of Europe at that time! Which is more bitter, 5% or1/3?

二、生物学、病理学要回答：类似“黑死病”鼠疫的历史灾难会不会重演？

2、Will historical disasterslike the "Black Death" plague repeat themselves?

对很多人来讲，“黑死病”鼠疫仅仅是个历史词汇，乐观地相信人类社会科技、医疗水平发展到今天这个水平，那些个传染病已经不可能大规模爆发，都应该得到有效控制，不需要“杞人忧天”，可事实真是如此吗?

For many people, the"Black Death" plague is only a historical word. They optimisticallybelieved that with the development of science, technology and medical care inhuman society to today's level, those infectious diseases are no longer likelyto erupt on a large scale and should be effectively controlled. There is noneed to "The man who was haunted bythe fear that the sky might fall ". But is this real?

曾追过一部叫《末日孤舰》的美剧，该剧虽然保持了老美一贯政治不正确的做派（总是将中国与俄罗斯视为敌人），但科幻部分剧情还是很能引人深思的：一场瘟疫，现代人类社会人口骤减一半以上，几乎所有的生还者都在恐惧与惶恐中生活，祈祷着有效疫苗的研发与生产；一名“超级传播者”所到之处立刻尸横遍野，沙滩上转一圈随便跟某个人说几句话，沙滩上所有休闲度假晒太阳的人们无一生还，这就是影视剧中瘟疫传染病的危害力。该剧中的“超级传播者”是个大反派，明知自己是病原体携带者和传播者甚至是“超级传播者”,有意去传染别人传染给整个人类社会群体，结果是全球一半以上的人口死于该场瘟疫！虽属科幻，但又何尝不是中世纪欧洲的“黑死病”鼠疫的现代版?谁又敢说这种情形在未来不会出现?

Once followed an Americandrama called "The Last Ship", Although the play has maintained theold and American political incorrect behavior (China and Russia are alwaysregarded as enemies), some of the sci-fi plots are still thought-provoking: aplague, the population of modern human society has plummeted by more than half,almost all survivors are living in fear, praying for the research and developmentand production of effective vaccines; A "super disseminator" wasimmediately littered with corpses wherever he went. He turned around on thebeach and said a few words to someone casually. All the people on the beach whotook leisure vacations and basked in the sun did not survive. This is theharmful power of plague and infectious diseases in movies and TV plays. The"super disseminator" in the play is a big villain. Knowing that he isa pathogen carrier and disseminator or even a "super disseminator",he intends to infect others to the entire human social group. As a result, morethan half of the world's population died of the plague! Although it is sciencefiction, is it not a modern version of the "Black Death" plague inmedieval Europe? Who dares to say that this will not happen in the future?